LME lead price, 2025.

Chart via the LME.

Shanghai Metals Market notes that the tariff announcement came during the traditional off season for lead, with battery producers reducing production and weakening overall demand for the metal.

However, the lead price had rebounded as of the end of April, with rising demand driving down inventories in downstream industries. By the end of Q2, lead was once again trading above US$1,900.

Trade concerns remained present, and although lead ultimately wasn’t included in reciprocal tariffs, considerable uncertainty dampened sentiment during the metal’s normally peak August-to-September period.

During the year’s third quarter, a significant 45,150 MT delivery to LME warehouses in November pushed total volume to 266,125 MT, leading to a collapse in the lead price amid oversupply concerns.

Lead stabilized in the US$1,930 to US$2,050 range as the year drew to a close, spiking to US$2,078.84 on November 12 and to US$1,910.48 on December 12.

What trends will move the lead market in 2026?

According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), global demand for refined lead is expected to increase by 0.9 percent to 13.37 million MT in 2026 after rising 1.8 percent in 2025.

In an October report, the organization projects a 6.6 percent rise in US lead demand for 2025, driven by higher domestic battery production. The ILZSG is also expecting greater 2025 lead usage in the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and the UK, with a 1.8 percent gain in demand across the European Union.

However, a rise in Chinese demand in the first half of 2025, supported by a government trade-in policy for cars and e-bikes, was offset by lower exports of lead-acid batteries, which fueled demand growth of just 0.9 percent.

Many of these same factors are expected to carry over into 2026, with gains in Europe, Vietnam and the US expected to be offset by a forecast 1.7 percent decrease in Chinese demand.

On the supply side, mining output is expected to increase 2.2 percent to 4.67 million MT in 2026, with a 2.5 percent rise from Chinese operations, along with further gains from Europe and output recoveries in Australia and the US.

Refined supply is forecast to increase by 1 percent to 13.47 million MT over the next year, with gains from smelters in Brazil, India and Kazakhstan partially offset by lower production in China and the UK.

Overall, the ILZSG is expecting the lead surplus to grow to 102,000 MT in 2026.

Lead price forecast for 2026

According to a report from market intelligence firm Mordor Intelligence, lead-acid batteries are set to see increasing demand from data centers and 5G applications, where they are used as back-up power systems. The firm is calling for a 0.4 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next two to four years.

In terms of EV sector demand, Mordor sees a 0.3 percent CAGR over the next two years as low-speed EVs like rickshaws and golf carts gain greater uptake in emerging markets in Southeast Asia.

Lead’s supply side could be affected by changing dynamics in the silver market.

In a December 12 article, Fastmarkets notes that a high silver price is prompting producers to accelerate project development timelines, pointing to Silver Mountain Resources’ (TSXV:AGMR,OTCQB:AGMRF) Reliquias project, which is expected to enter commercial production in Q3 2026.

As far as 2026 goes, Fastmarkets is expecting balance in the refined lead metal market, with little supply growth and the price rangebound at around the US$2,000 mark.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$97,611.39, up by 3.3 percent over 24 hours.

Bitcoin price performance, January 14, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Ether (ETH) was priced at US$3,380.29, up by 5.5 percent over the last 24 hours.

Altcoin price update

• XRP (XRP) was priced at US$2.15, up by 0.6 percent over 24 hours.

• Solana (SOL) was trading at US$147.38, up by 2.7 percent over 24 hours.

Today’s crypto news to know

Senate Committee puts crypto bill on January clock

The US Senate Committee on Agriculture has scheduled January 27 for its markup of a sweeping crypto market structure bill aimed at clarifying regulatory oversight of digital assets.

The bill text is due to be released on January 21, giving lawmakers less than a week to review and propose amendments before the committee vote. Committee Chair John Boozman said the compressed schedule is designed to balance transparency with momentum as Congress looks to reduce regulatory uncertainty.

The agriculture committee plays a central role because it oversees the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which would gain expanded authority under the proposal.

If approved, the bill would still need to clear the Senate Banking Committee, pass the full Senate and House and ultimately be signed into law. While momentum has improved compared to last year, unresolved disputes remain around stablecoin yield and decentralized finance provisions.

Polygon to acquire Coinme, Sequence for ‘one-stop shop’ payments

Polygon Labs has entered into definitive agreements to acquire Coinme and Sequence, bringing together licensed fiat on- and off-ramps, enterprise wallets and onchain orchestration in one integrated solution.

Coinme provides licensed cash-to-digital at retail locations, while Sequence has the simplified ‘smart wallet’ technology needed to move that money easily. By acquiring these two companies, Polygon believes it is building a “one-stop shop” for moving money, allowing users to turn physical cash into digital money, and vice versa, at over 50,000 retail locations in the US; they can also create a digital wallet using an email or social media account.

In addition to that, Polygon said the acquisition will allow crypto users to send money across the world in seconds, without the need for complicated background steps.

Figure launches OPEN, a blockchain-based stock exchange network

Figure Technology Solutions (NASDAQ:FIGR) has launched a new system called the On-Chain Public Equity Network (OPEN), providing a new way for companies to list and trade shares using blockchain technology.

According to the announcement, OPEN is a new system where official stock ownership is recorded directly on a public blockchain, meaning the blockchain record is the stock, unlike a digital copy. It allows continuous, peer-to-peer trading via a limit order book, eliminating reliance on traditional banks and clearinghouses that close.

Investors can self-custody their stocks in a digital wallet, which aims to reduce fees and costs.

The network also allows shareholders to use their stocks as collateral for borrowing or lending, a role typically held by prime brokers. Figure said it is planning for these blockchain stocks to be ‘exchangeable’ with Nasdaq-traded stocks, ensuring price parity and liquidity across both markets.

Figure is the first company to use OPEN, and is offering some of its own shares to demonstrate the technology’s viability for large-scale public investing.

CleanSpark expands into AI data centers with Texas acquisition

CleanSpark (NASDAQ:CLSK), a company primarily known for Bitcoin mining, announced an expansion to build data centers for artificial intelligence (AI) with the purchase of 447 acres of land in Brazoria County, Texas.

This is its second major land purchase in the area following a similar deal nearby in Austin County.

The company has secured a long-term deal to get up to 600 megawatts of electricity for this new site, enough power to run hundreds of thousands of homes.

While the company is known for mining Bitcoin, it is now using its expertise in building large “computer warehouses” to support the AI boom. These new sites are being designed as AI factories, places filled with powerful computers that process the complex data needed for things like ChatGPT and other advanced tech.

The deal is expected to close in early 2026. Once finished, CleanSpark will have nearly 1 gigawatt of potential capacity in the Houston area, making it a major player in the infrastructure that runs the modern internet.

Strategy’s US$1.3 billion Bitcoin haul lifts price

Bitcoin climbed back above US$95,000 after Michael Saylor’s Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) disclosed a US$1.3 billion Bitcoin purchase, its largest single acquisition since July.

The purchase pushed Strategy’s shares up about 7 percent, reinforcing its reputation as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin. The company now holds roughly US$66 billion worth of Bitcoin at an average purchase price near US$75,000.

Strategy funded the purchase by issuing more than US$1 billion in new shares rather than tapping existing cash.

The rally was reinforced by a surge in institutional demand, with US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recording their strongest single-day inflows since October.

European crypto exchange Bitpanda targets 2026 Frankfurt IPO

European crypto exchange Bitpanda is reportedly preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) in the first half of 2026, with a potential valuation of up to 5 billion euros.

Bloomberg reported that the Vienna-based firm is said to be eyeing a Frankfurt listing, positioning itself in one of Europe’s deepest capital markets. Founded in 2014, Bitpanda has grown into a major retail platform with more than 7 million users and a dominant share of Austria’s domestic crypto trading activity.

The company has reportedly engaged major investment banks to advise on the deal, though it has yet to formally confirm its IPO plans. A Frankfurt listing would align Bitpanda with a broader trend of European firms prioritizing liquidity and investor depth over traditional UK venues

Q1: Cobalt moves from glut to supply shock

As mentioned, cobalt metal prices hit their weakest level since 2016 in January. Global mine output had more than doubled over five years, far outpacing demand growth from electric vehicles and other end uses.

That dynamic changed abruptly in late February, when the DRC — which supplies roughly three-quarters of the world’s cobalt — imposed a four month suspension on cobalt hydroxide exports.

The news lifted cobalt from US$24,495 at the start of the year to above US$34,000 by the end of March, with intra-month highs nearing US$36,300. The move marked the sector’s first meaningful rebound in nearly two years.

As the DRC exhibited control over cobalt supply, the market began to look to the world’s second largest cobalt-producing nation: Indonesia. Indonesia’s cobalt output is largely a by-product of its laterite nickel industry, produced through high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) plants that process nickel-rich ores.

These facilities generate mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), an intermediate containing both nickel and cobalt that can be further refined into battery-grade materials. The model has enabled Indonesia to rapidly scale its cobalt supply, leveraging its dominant nickel position and integrated processing infrastructure.

Indonesia produced about 31,000 metric tons of cobalt in 2024 — roughly 10 percent of global supply — cementing its position as the world’s second largest producer behind the DRC.

Output growth is being driven by HPAL projects targeting up to 500,000 tons per annum (tpa) of mixed hydroxide precipitate, potentially yielding 50,000 tpa of cobalt, though scaling up may prove challenging.

Indonesian MHP, a lower-cost intermediate that is rich in nickel and cobalt, is increasingly viewed by Chinese refiners as a substitute for DRC-sourced cobalt hydroxide.

Q2 and Q3: A fragile equilibrium forms

The DRC’s export ban continued to underpin prices through the second quarter.

Standard-grade cobalt metal was trading near US$15 to US$16 per pound at the time, while cobalt sulfate posted even sharper gains. Despite the rally, sentiment remained cautious. Chinese refiners drew on existing inventories, and trade data showed cobalt units still flowing into China, particularly from Indonesia.

By June, prices had begun to ease as uncertainty mounted over how long the DRC would maintain controls.

Although China imported significant volumes earlier in the year, analysts warned Indonesian supply would be insufficient to fully offset reduced DRC cobalt shipments. Later that month, the DRC extended its export restrictions through September, reinforcing expectations that the market would move toward balance.

By mid-year, Chinese import data confirmed the impact — cobalt hydroxide inflows had fallen sharply, with analysts projecting constrained refinery feed into late 2025 or early 2026.

Prices stabilized in a broad US$33,000 to US$37,000 range through Q3, supported by tightening supply and diminishing inventories. Market participants increasingly viewed the DRC’s actions as a structural shift rather than a temporary correction, signaling the end of the cobalt surplus that had defined the previous two years.

By late 2025, the cobalt market had transformed from one of chronic oversupply to one approaching equilibrium — a reset driven not by demand growth, but by decisive supply-side intervention.

Q4: Cobalt quotas replace DRC ban, prices climb

After months of supply disruption, the DRC lifted its full cobalt export ban in mid-October, replacing it with a rigid quota system that will shape the market through 2026.

Under the new framework, annual DRC exports are capped at about 96,600 metric tons, roughly half of 2024 levels, with just 18,125 metric tons scheduled for shipment in Q4 2025.

This structural tightening helped sustain elevated prices that surged above US$47,000 by late October, levels not seen since early 2023, amid persistent feedstock shortages and constrained exports.

DRC quotas have provided a degree of market clarity, with major producers like CMOC Group (OTCPL:CMCLF) receiving significant allocations that underpin production plans. Despite robust output guidance, inventories outside the DRC remain tight, and market participants see continued upward price pressure as the quota system curtails supply.

“The DRC’s quota system is set to squeeze supply in the next two years — unless the country revises quotas higher,” wrote Fastmarkets’ Oliver Masson in a December market update.

“Prices are already considerably higher than they were at the beginning of the year, and they are likely to remain elevated for as long as current quota levels remain in force,’ he said. ‘Cobalt is mostly used in batteries, and the longer prices remain elevated, the more likely it is that EV manufacturers will seek to move to low-cobalt or cobalt-free chemistries where feasible. This could slow demand in the medium term.”

Cobalt price forecast for 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, analysts see the cobalt market shifting into a deficit as export caps bite and global feedstock availability shrinks. Fastmarkets projects a structural shortfall of about 10,700 metric tons against demand near 292,300 metric tons, driven by DRC quota limits and ongoing drawdowns of stocks.

Industry forecasters also anticipate that reduced shipments, combined with a stubbornly tight pipeline, will support stronger average prices next year. Some forecasts suggest cobalt could average near US$55,000 in 2026 as export quotas supplant the 2025 ban. Indonesian supply is emerging as a secondary source, with production climbing, but most analysts agree it will be insufficient to offset DRC constraints in the near term.

After a year of dramatic swings driven by supply policy in the DRC, 2026 is shaping up as the first sustained deficit environment in the cobalt market, with prices expected to remain elevated amid structural tightening.

“Prices have substantially recovered over 2025 and are expected to remain elevated in 2026 as the DRC limits exports,” said Aubry. “There is a significant potential upside risk as dwindling ex-DRC stocks present the risk of demand destruction towards the end of the year.”

Key iron ore price drivers in 2025

All in all, prices for iron ore didn’t fare too badly in 2025.

The biggest factor affecting growth was a significant fall-off during the first half of the year as pressures mounted from a continuing slump in the Chinese property sector and the threat of US tariffs.

The Chinese real estate sector has been in steep decline since 2021, when two of the nation’s top developers — Country Garden and Evergrande — declared bankruptcy after incurring hundreds of billions of dollars in debt. Since then, the government has introduced various stimulus measures, but has failed to turn the sector around.

As mentioned, because of the sheer size of the property market in China, it is a significant demand driver for steel products and has an outsized influence on the global iron ore market.

Another noteworthy headwind for iron ore price levels this past year was the threat of US tariffs. In early April, US President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, which applied a 10 percent levy across the board, and threatened retaliatory tariffs to close trade deficits with most countries.

The move sparked fears of a global recession and triggered a rout in equities and commodities markets, sending prices plunging. However, most markets rebounded quickly as plans were dialed back after a squeeze in the bond market that sent 10 year treasury yields up by more than half a percentage point.

Further iron ore price pressures came later in the year, when the massive Simandou mine in Guinea shipped its first iron ore, destined for smelters in China, on December 2.

Two consortia of companies own the mine. Blocks three and four have a 45/40/15 ownership split between Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO), Chinalco and the Guinea government, and blocks one and two have a 45/35/20 split between Winning International, China Hongquiao Group (HKEX:1378,OTCPL:CHHQF) and United Mining Supply.

The mine will ramp up production over the next 30 months, and is expected to produce 15 million to 20 million MT in 2026 and 40 million to 50 million MT in 2027.

Iron ore price forecast for 2026

Sardain expects iron ore prices to remain muted in 2026.

“We believe that price should drop below the US$100 per MT mark, although it could stay above this level in H1 due to seasonality … so, overall, prices staying between US$100 to US$105 per MT in H1, then declining below US$100 per MT in H2, with the ramp-up of the Simandou mine being a determining factor,” he said.

This is largely in line with estimates from other firms. BMI is predicting a 2026 price of US$95, while RBC Capital Markets sees iron ore averaging US$98; the overall consensus stands at US$94.